Let’s start with an uncomfortable truth: advertising is not a magic wand. It won’t fix a bad product. It won’t overcome a broken supply chain. And it certainly won’t guarantee success, even if executed flawlessly.

Advertising is a weak force—one of many in a chaotic mix of market forces, consumer whims, and socio-political surprises. You don’t control it. You can only influence it. But influence, used wisely, can be enough to shift the odds in your favour.

Here’s how to stop chasing certainty, and start improving your chances.

The Cult of Certainty

Every week, someone new hits the left-hand peak of the Dunning-Kruger curve and proclaims they’ve cracked it:
"2x your CTR!"
"59% uplift in conversions!"
"Double your profits in 12 months!"

Just follow their formula, and success is inevitable.

But marketing isn’t physics. It isn’t governed by natural laws. It’s messy, emotional, and complex. What works today might flop tomorrow. What drives growth in one category may stall in another. And no campaign is immune to global events—pandemics, inflation, political instability—all of which can knock the best-laid plans sideways.

“In marketing, advertising, and media our strategies have no inevitability about them. Just probabilities and likelihoods.”
— Bob Hoffman

Advertising Is a Weak Force

Yes, advertising can do remarkable things for a brand. But it doesn’t operate in a vacuum. It can’t rescue poor business fundamentals. And it doesn’t command the attention you think it does.

As Mark Ritson likes to remind us: consumers don’t think about your brand all day. They’re busy. Your ad is a tiny blip—if it registers at all.

That’s why effectiveness lies in repetition, not revelation. Great advertising builds mental availability. It nudges, reminds, and makes your brand easier to buy when the moment arrives. It rarely converts instantly—but over time, it shapes preference and boosts sales.

“How advertising works” by Les Binet is essential reading. It doesn’t promise magic—just real, incremental impact.

Think Probabilities, Not Promises

So, what’s the move? It’s not despair—it’s pragmatism.

Great marketers accept uncertainty and adopt a probabilistic mindset. They don’t chase sure things. They play the odds smartly. They know their job isn’t to guarantee success, but to increase the likelihood of it.

Here’s how.

Principles That Boost Advertising Effectiveness

These principles won’t eliminate risk. But they’ll help you stack the deck in your favour.

1. Reach, Reach, Reach

Byron Sharp and the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute have shown this time and again: brands grow by reaching as many potential buyers as possible.

Targeting superfans is tempting, but real growth comes from light and infrequent buyers. Broad reach ensures your brand is remembered when purchase decisions are made.

2. Balance Brand and Activation

Short-term wins are tempting. They’re trackable, measurable, and often rewarded. But over-focus on performance marketing is like eating seed corn. Long-term brand building is what sustains future growth.

The gold standard, according to Binet and Field:
60% brand building, 40% activation.
Brand campaigns create memory; activation captures intent.

3. Creative Matters More Than You Think

Most advertising is ignored. The only way to cut through is with creativity.

Great creative:

• Captures attention

• Sticks in memory

• Sparks emotion

It doesn’t just "look good." It drives business results. But creativity must be context-aware. What works on TikTok might fail on LinkedIn. Tailor creative to the task, the platform, and the audience.

And yes, sometimes “make the logo bigger” might actually be the right call.

4. Consistency + Distinctiveness

People don’t buy what they don’t recognise. That’s why brand assets—logos, colours, slogans, mascots—are so important.

But recognition alone isn’t enough. Consistency is key. Show up the same way, again and again. Across platforms, over time.

Recent research by Andrew Tindall and System1 using data from the IPA (Institute of Practitioners in Advertising) effectiveness databank, has reinforced this wisdom, showing how creative consistency leads to stronger brands, and greater profits.

5. Don’t Worship Vanity Metrics

CTR, Viewability, and other digital metrics can be comforting—but misleading. Many are gamed, inflated, or disconnected from brand outcomes.

Instead, track what matters:

• Human attention

• Brand lift

• Share of voice

• Share of search

These are the indicators that point to meaningful growth.

6. Test, Learn, Repeat

You can’t predict what will work. But you can find out.

Test everything:

• Creative variations

• Messaging angles

• New platforms

Treat your campaigns as experiments. Use results to iterate. Stay curious. Stay flexible. Success is rarely linear—but it rewards those who adapt quickly.

Embrace the Chaos, Play the Odds

Advertising isn’t broken—it’s just misunderstood. We want it to be neat and predictable. But it’s not. It’s emotional. Human. Messy.

That’s why the best marketers don’t pretend they have the answers. They accept uncertainty, apply proven principles, and focus on increasing the odds of success.

Be the marketer who embraces the unknown.
Reject the cult of certainty.
Play the game smart, and you’ll give yourself a damn good shot at winning.

And in this business, that’s as close to a guarantee as you’re ever going to get.